8-K: Occidental Petroleum Previews Q4 2025 Earnings Factors

Occidental Petroleum Corporation has released preliminary factors management believes will impact its fourth quarter 2025 results, including tax rates, diluted shares, and realized commodity prices.

Summary

• The sale of Occidental Chemical Corporation (OxyChem) was completed on January 2, 2026, and its results will be reported as discontinued operations for all periods presented, starting with the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2025.
• The expected adjusted effective tax rate for continuing operations for Q4 2025 is between 35% and 37%.
• The expected adjusted effective tax rate for discontinued operations for Q4 2025 is between 24% and 26%.
• Average diluted shares outstanding for the fourth quarter of 2025 were 1,002.9 million shares.
• Average worldwide realized oil price for Q4 2025 was $58.99 per barrel, with U.S. at $58.01/Bbl and International at $64.68/Bbl.
• Average worldwide realized NGL price for Q4 2025 was $16.66 per barrel, with U.S. at $15.78/Bbl and International at $23.78/Bbl.
• Average worldwide realized natural gas price for Q4 2025 was $1.29 per Mcf, with U.S. at $1.12/Mcf and International at $1.87/Mcf.
• Worldwide oil realized prices were 100% of average WTI and 94% of average Brent index prices.
• Worldwide NGL realized prices were 28% of average WTI index prices.
• Domestic natural gas realized prices were 31% of average NYMEX index prices.

Sentiment

Score: 5

Explanation: The filing is purely informational, providing preliminary financial data points without explicit positive or negative performance commentary. It serves as a factual update ahead of full earnings.

Positives

• The completion of the OxyChem sale on January 2, 2026, streamlines the company's portfolio, allowing for a clearer focus on its core oil and gas operations.

Risks

• General economic conditions, including slowdowns and recessions, domestically or internationally.
• Indebtedness and other payment obligations, including the need to generate sufficient cash flows to fund operations.
• Ability to successfully monetize select assets and repay or refinance debt, and the impact of changes in credit ratings or future increases in interest rates.
• Global and local commodity and commodity-futures pricing fluctuations and volatility.
• Actions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producing countries.
• Future impairments of proved and unproved oil and gas properties or equity investments, or write-downs of productive assets, causing charges to earnings.
• Unexpected changes in costs.
• Government actions (including tariffs, geopolitical, trade, fiscal, and regulatory uncertainties), war (including Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts), and political conditions and events.
• Inflation, its impact on markets and economic activity, and related monetary policy actions by governments.
• Availability of capital resources, levels of capital expenditures, and contractual obligations.
• The regulatory approval environment, including ability to timely obtain or maintain permits for drilling and/or development projects.
• Ability to successfully complete, or any material delay of, field developments, expansion projects, capital expenditures, efficiency projects, acquisitions, or divestitures.
• Risks associated with acquisitions, mergers, and joint ventures, such as difficulties integrating businesses, uncertainty associated with financial projections or projected synergies, restructuring, increased costs, and adverse tax consequences.
• Uncertainties and liabilities associated with acquired and divested properties and businesses, including retained liabilities and indemnification obligations associated with the chemical business.
• Uncertainties about the estimated quantities of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and natural gas reserves.
• Lower-than-expected production from development projects or acquisitions.
• Exploration, drilling, and other operational risks.
• Disruptions to, capacity constraints in, or other limitations on the pipeline systems that deliver oil and natural gas and other processing and transportation considerations.
• Volatility in the securities, capital, or credit markets, including capital market disruptions and instability of financial institutions.
• Health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risks, costs, and liability under existing or future laws, regulations, and litigation (including related to climate change or remedial actions or assessments).
• Legislative or regulatory changes, including those relating to hydraulic fracturing or other oil and natural gas operations, retroactive royalty or production tax regimes, and deep-water and onshore drilling and permitting regulations.
• Ability to recognize intended benefits from business strategies and initiatives, such as the sale of OxyChem, low-carbon ventures businesses, and announced greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets or net-zero goals.
• Changes in government grant or loan programs.
• Potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation, government investigations, and other proceedings.
• Disruption or interruption of production or manufacturing or facility damage due to accidents, chemical releases, labor unrest, weather, power outages, natural disasters, cyber-attacks, terrorist acts, or insurgent activity.
• The scope and duration of global or regional health pandemics or epidemics and actions taken by government authorities and other third parties.
• The creditworthiness and performance of counterparties, including financial institutions, operating partners, and other parties.
• Failure of risk management.
• Ability to retain and hire key personnel.
• Supply, transportation, and labor constraints.
• Reorganization or restructuring of operations.
• Changes in state, federal, or international tax rates, deductions, incentives, or credits.
• Actions by third parties that are beyond control.

Future Outlook

The filing provides preliminary estimates for certain factors impacting fourth quarter 2025 results, including adjusted effective tax rates for continuing (35-37%) and discontinued (24-26%) operations, and average diluted shares outstanding (1,002.9 million). It also details average realized commodity prices for oil, NGL, and natural gas. The company explicitly states this summary is not an estimate of full Q4 2025 earnings and may not account for all adjustments.

Management Comments

• Management believes the provided summary of earnings considerations will impact the company's fourth quarter of 2025 results.
• The summary is intended only to provide information regarding current estimates of these factors and is not a comprehensive estimate of fourth quarter 2025 earnings.

Industry Context

This announcement provides a preliminary look at key operational and financial metrics for Occidental Petroleum, a major player in the oil and gas industry, ahead of its full Q4 2025 earnings report. The realized commodity prices offer insight into the market conditions faced by upstream producers during the quarter. The divestiture of OxyChem signals a strategic move to focus on core energy operations, aligning with broader industry trends of portfolio optimization among integrated energy companies.

Stakeholder Impact

• Shareholders: Provides early insights into key financial metrics and strategic developments (OxyChem sale) that will influence the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report, aiding in their investment analysis.
• Investors and Analysts: Offers critical data points such as tax rates, diluted shares, and realized commodity prices, enabling them to refine their financial models and expectations for Occidental's Q4 2025 performance.

Next Steps

• Finalization of Occidental's financial reporting process for the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Filing of Occidental's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2025, which will report OxyChem's results as discontinued operations for all periods presented.

Key Dates

Keywords

Occidental Petroleum, OXY, Q4 2025 Earnings, Financial Results, Oil and Gas, Commodity Prices, Tax Rate, Diluted Shares, OxyChem Sale, Energy Sector